The Stage Hypothesis and the S-Curve: Some Contradictory Evidence This paper presents the results of a study testing the s-shaped budget curve of Nolan's stage model of computer development in an organization. Research on the data processing budgets of California counties fails to support the s-shaped curve or the use of budgets as a basis for a stage model. However, the results do not invalidate the concept of a stage model. The analysis suggests an alternative model of budget growth and a separation between models of budgeting growth and growth stages in the development of the computer resource. CACM April, 1977 Lucac, H. C. Jr. Sutton, J. A. budgets, stage theories, stage hypothesis 3.50 3.59 CA770405 JB December 29, 1977 5:12 AM 2977 4 2977 2985 4 2977 3011 4 2977 3035 4 2977 2485 5 2977 2977 5 2977 2977 5 2977 2977 5 2977