The Stage Hypothesis and the S-Curve: Some Contradictory Evidence

This paper presents the results of a study
testing the s-shaped budget curve of Nolan's stage 
model of computer development in an organization.  Research
on the data processing budgets of California 
counties fails to support the s-shaped curve or the use
of budgets as a basis for a stage model.  However, 
the results do not invalidate the concept of a stage
model.  The analysis suggests an alternative model 
of budget growth and a separation between models of budgeting
growth and growth stages in the development 
of the computer resource.

CACM April, 1977

Lucac, H. C. Jr.
Sutton, J. A.

budgets, stage theories, stage hypothesis

3.50 3.59

CA770405 JB December 29, 1977  5:12 AM

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